The main opposition Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, polled a miserly 117,845 votes in the weekend’s governorship election in Ondo State. It is the party’s worst performance in the state since 1999.
In the six previous governorship elections in Ondo, the PDP scored 195,682 votes (1999); 655,968 (2003), 349,258 (2007); 155,961 (2012); 150,380 (2016); and 195,791 (2020).
However, the 117,845 votes scored by Hon Ajayi Agboola, its candidate, were better than the 69,127 votes that Agboola got in 2020 while running on the platform of the Labour Party, LP.
The 2024 Ondo governorship election is also the worst in terms of voter’ turnout, highlighting the rising wave of voters’ apathy in Nigerian elections.
Voters’ turnout in Ondo guber polls
In 1999, of the 1,33,617 registered voters, 536,584 (40.24 per cent) came out to cast their ballots. Four years later, the figure rose significantly with 889,868 (59.16 per cent) of the 1,504,181 registered coming out to vote.
In 2007, only 575,309 (42.40 per cent) of the 1,356,779 eligible voters took part.
The figure plummeted to 38.12 per cent in 2012 when only 624,658 of the listed voters cast their ballots.
There was a slight improvement in 2016 when voters’ turnout was 42.95 per cent as 707,776 of the 1,647,973 registered voters took part.
In 2020, only 591,193 (32.62 per cent) of the 1,812,634 registered voters participated.
In Saturday’s election, the figure went further down. For the first, less than 500,000 voters took part. Only 497,077 or 28.29 per cent of the 1,757,205 voters, who collected their Permanent Voters Cards, PVCs, came out to vote.
On Saturday, we reported that money was the main attraction for voters to take part in the election following perceived rigging of many polls across the country. Indeed, vote-trading was a major complaint in the election.
Factors that led to PDP’s defeat
Aiyedatiwa won overwhelmingly across the three senatorial districts to show how grounded he is in the politics of the state.
Unfortunately, Ajayi even failed to win his local government of Ese-Odo after polling 7,814 votes against Aiyedatiwa’s 14,511 votes
Tinubu/APC governors’ factor
Reliable source told Vanguard that President Bola Tinubu had, before the election, met with notable leaders of the party in the state and instructed them that the “Ondo election is a must win” and promised to give financial support, if necessary.
Vanguard also learned that Governor Aiyedatiwa and the leaders of the party were reminded that the Ondo election would be the first to be conducted in the South-West after the president assumed office, hence, he should not be disgraced politically in his zone.
APC governors’ invasion
The presence of nine APC governors and national leaders of the APC led by the National Chairman, Dr Umar Ganduje, led credence to the fact that they did not want to take anything for granted.
Also, the statement made by Vice President Kashim Shettima, who represented the President during the party’s campaign grand finale in Akure, that the party was going to win in all the 18 council areas, showed that they meant to “capture” all the states in the region.
Vanguard further learned that Aiyedatiwa, a new governor, had met with some of the governors and pleaded with them not to allow him to “walk the journey alone” and he was obliged.
Sources revealed that Aiyedatiwa begged his colleague governors not to allow him to be disgraced by his kinsman, Agboola Ajayi.
Vanguard was also told that the national leadership of the party was carried along, hence the choice of Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State as chairman of the National Campaign Council, while his Ekiti State counterpart, Mr Abiodun Oyebanji was included in the council.
Divided house, internal wrangling, multiple defections
Unlike Aiyedatiwa, who was able to win back other aggrieved governorship aspirants shortly after the party’s primary in April this year, Ajayi, the PDP candidate could not rally other aggrieved party members. This led to many of them leaving Ajayi in the cold.
Two PDP governorship aspirants left the party. While Chief Olusola Ebiseni left for the Labour Party, LP Bamidele Akingboye went to the Social Democratic Party, SDP, and picked the tickets of their newfound parties.
Notable leaders of the party, stood aloof immediately after the party primary and all through the campaigns.
Their aides also left the party in their hundreds and pitched their tents with Aiyedatiwa.
As it is Ajayi, went to the election with a divided house and the results of the election across the three senatorial districts were abysmally woeful.
Mimiko’s neutrality
Former governor Olusegun Mimiko, who would have been Ajayi’s greatest ally was said to have been neutral during the campaigns even though his loyalists had crossed over to Aiyedatiwa’s camp.
Had Mimiko thrown his weight behind Ajayi, it would have been a tough contest for Aiyedatiwa.
Inability to match APC’s war chest
Another factor that caused Ajayi’s defeat was the huge war chest of the APC.
In spite of the support of two PDP governors (Seyi Makinde of Oyo State and Senator Ademola Adeleke of Osun State), Ajayi was unable to fly.
While the APC was reportedly doling out between N20,000 and N25,000 to each voter, the opposition reportedly offered less.
PDP’s State Collation Agent, Olaniyi Ogungbuji, claimed that the APC deployed over N35 billion to induce voters in the poll.
“I can tell you that APC, as a party, deployed over N35 billion into inducing the electorate. People were buying votes for N20,000 or N15,000, and in my polling unit, it was N10,000 to N15,000,” he said
Incumbency factor
As a serving governor, Aiyedatiwa had the incumbency factor on his side. The workers, traditional rulers, who got five per cent council allocations, pensioners, farmers and a host of other stakeholders endorsed his candidature before the election. A few months to the election, Aiyedatiwa appointed 344 personal assistants and directed them to go back to their constituencies to propagate his achievements.
One term of 4 years for Aiyedatiwa
It was also learned that the massive support that Aiyedatiwa got from the Ondo North and Central Senatorial districts was a result of the fact that he could only spend one term after completing the term of his late boss, Rotimi Akeredolu.
Politicians from the two zones preferred Aiyedatiwa, who constitutionally cannot be sworn in more than twice than Ajayi, who will want to spend eight years.
Ajayi enjoyed some backing from the people of Ondo South, who argue that it will only be proper to allow him in order to ensure two terms of eight years for the zone rather than Aiyedatiwa, who according to the Constitution, is expected to spend a term.
Despite the support that Ajayi enjoys in the South, he still couldn’t fly in the poll.
Aiyedatiwa defeated him in all the six council areas of Ondo South.